Doritos Top Three SuperBowl Commercials. Data reveals likely winners!!!

The VCK predicts which three spots will prevail in the internet voting.

Hello minions. We have hit the doldrums in the social networking phase of the Crash The Superbowl (CTSB) commercial contest. The principals of the five campaigns are suffering from lack of sleep, no doubt. Patience is wearing thin in some camps, as doubts are starting to rise based on view tallies, while other camps are energized as positive indicators from view rankings bolster their campaign resolve. For the camps who currently lead in ‘view counts’, this contest can’t end soon enough.

Currently, the three videos that would prevail, were the contest to end today, would be: Casket, Snack Attack Samurai, and House Rules.

The VCK predicts (unless Five Point productions abandons their two pronged campaign approach), these three spots will air during the Superbowl.

Casket

Snack Attack Samurai

House Rules

If you have been following my blog lately, then you know this is more than a little disappointing to me. I was hoping for the strongest spots (by my reckoning) to emerge from the voting, therefore giving the world a more accurate view of what our freelance creative community has to offer, but in my opinion, Five Point Productions is blowing it in this final phase of the competition. Still feeling their oats from the major coup of scoring two spots in the finals bracket, they are allowing the adrenaline to blind them to the facts. Their campaign strategy to score two of the three ‘TOP THREE’ is going to back fire on them. It’s kind of like watching a kid chase the candy store owner around the block for his key to the shop, but can’t quite grab hold of him because both fists are full of cinnamon sticks and gum drops.

Five Point Productions is trying to have their cakes and eat them two.

HISTORY LESSON: In 1992, Ross Perot spoiled the Republicans bid at a 2nd term for incumbent president George Bush Sr.. All they could do is watch in horror as Perot siphoned enough conservative votes away from the Republicans to allow Bill Clinton to saunter into the Oval Office.

PRESENT DAY: Here in 2010, Five Point Productions are their own Ross Perot and can’t see it or don’t care. The numbers don’t lie. They are asking their voters to alternate votes every other day between the two spots, instead of throwing all of the support to one or the other video. It’s not working. Don’t they have the same data that I have? The same indicators that predicted their win in 2007 are revealing a trend towards defeat here in 2010. Sorry but it smacks of over confidence and hubris, at a time when neither can be afforded. Now maybe they have a few tricks up their sleeves to create some sort of viral voting wave. That’s all well and good, but what if some of their competition are as capable at ‘viral campaigning’ as they are? They should have learned from 2007 when ‘Check Out Girl’ nearly eclipsed them in the final day(s) of voting. At that juncture, it then comes down to a basic battle of numbers. Numbers that five Point is willing to divide, much to the relief of their competition, I’m sure.

Oh well. Below is a chart and graph with the viewing totals as of midday yesterday. You may click on either image to view a higher resolution.

Advertisements

9 responses to “Doritos Top Three SuperBowl Commercials. Data reveals likely winners!!!

  1. I’m not quite sure raw numbers, especially view counts, are a good indicator of who will make the top 3 this year. There are lots of human factors that should be considered.

    If you check the social networking stuff being done by the “Casket” team, you’ll see that they are actively encouraging their fans to keep raising the view count on their entry. The rising view count seems to be a point of pride for them and the supporters seem to be working to keep the view count high. So their supporters might be replaying the video 20 times a day, but they still can only vote once day. The producer of “Casket” is a well known pastor for a megachurch in LA so I am sure they have a deep enough base to get them to the finals, but I think their supporters think they are helping the cause by artificially inflating the view count.

    On the other hand, when I go to the site and vote for “Underdog” every day, I never watch the video. So I think the most loyal voters are just voting and not clicking the play button. And if I were waging a campaign to get as many people as possible to vote every day, I’d tell my friends “just login and vote, no need to watch the video every day.”

    Also, I don’t think House Rules’ high view count means they are on track to win. “House Rules” has gone viral on youtube. Scumbags who steal other people’s popular content and post it to their own channels have re-posted House Rules. Two unofficial versions of the video have more than 640,000 combined views. But no links are provided so none of those viewers know where to vote. I think that a lot of people are sharing the official link for house rules in the same way. People are posting it to their social networking sites because it’s funny and shocking. But I bet very few of those “viral” viewers will take the time to register and vote.

    I agree that 5 Points 2-pronged attack might not be a good choice. If I were in 5 Points place, I’d drop one of the campaigns. But your conclusion that they will be totally left out of the Top 3 because they split their base fails to take into account human nature. The rules say you can only vote for one video, once a day. But I know that if I had 2 videos in the finals, a lot of my family and friends would create 2 accounts and vote for both videos every day, even if I told them not to. Having one team with 2 videos in the finals is probably something Doritos never considered when they set up their website. Maybe their tracking software can detect if someone from one IP address votes for the same video over and over, but how likely is it that they can tell if 2 accounts at the same IP address are voting for 2 separate videos every day? Sure it’s against the rules and 5 points shouldn’t encourage anyone to do that, but convincing family and friends not to help you as much as they can is not an easy thing to do.

    • Beardy, whatever standard you hold ‘Casket‘ to with regard to view/vote ratios is true for the remaining videos. The numbers are consistent….across the board. You are treading into waters I personally know better than the average goose.

      I am normally not a betting man, but if you care to wager, I will take your bet and guarantee that the top three view-getters will be the top three vote-getters, and will be the three spots to air during the game.

      Are you ready to lose some money to your favorite charity?

      The VCK

      • Hmmm, ok, I’ll take that bet. I’m amazed at the viral success of House Rules but I haven’t seen any real campaigning from them. So I don’t think they’re going to make it.

        Ok, so how about 25 bucks to our charity of choice. (mine would be amnesty international) And the question at hand is, “will the 3 ads that air during the superbowl also have the highest view counts?” I say no.

        Maybe we should go off of the view counts that are posted 12 hours after the voting deadline ends. That way, the servers will update and show the true totals. Sound good?

        • $25??????? Boy you got a lot of faith in your theory…..but if $25 is all you want to go, fine.

          The view counts are updated every couple of minutes Beardy. Doritos will not count any views after the deadline (might not even show them), so no, the operative tallies should be derived a minute after the deadline.

          I will concede this. If the views are within a thousand or two, (since we will end up having about 100,000 or so), than yes, the votes could go either way. But barring a close finish it will be the three videos with the highest views that air during the SuperBowl.

          The VCK.

  2. If you’re right, my two favorites of the six are there — Casket and Samurai. I think there’s a tiny chance that Casket could offend some folks, so I’m going with Samurai as the winner. House Rules was cute, but the editing seemed awkward and patched to me.

    • Hey Matt,
      I think Casket has the best chance of scoring decently in the Ad Meter poll. Samurai and House Rules are my least favorites. I can’t help but feel Doritos has doomed themselves to a mediocre showing with USA Today this year.

      The VCK

  3. House Rules…the bes by far.

    • Hey J. Didiez,
      Like you, I think House rules will make it to SuperBowl play. I don’t think though that it has an appeal massive enough to receive a united USA Today vote on game day. I think the vote will be split, keeping it out of the top three.
      The VCK

  4. I wrote an ending for the Doritos commercial and need votes! Any help is appreciated. Thanks 🙂

    http://www.writetheend.ca/en/gallery/A/15570/

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s